Football in Five

1. Super Bodo/Glimt Proving Money isnt everything

Incredible scenes Tuesday night saw Bodo/Glimt put Inter to the sword (last seasons finalists). Last season they reach the Europa League semis and again this season they continue. With a well documented population of around 55,000, a ground that holds just 8,300 and a squad market value of a whooping £49m they continue to rock the Football world with their over performance. I’m completely here for it and we should all enjoy these halcyon times before the inevitable pillaging of this team and staff. I love it when  plucky underdogs give the big boys a bloody nose. This season alone, Bodo/Glimt have beaten Atletico, Man City and Inter (Twice) earning over £50m this season alone. Over the past few years they have managed to beat Lazio, Roma, Celtic and Porto amongst others. The obvious benefit of a plastic pitch in the Arctic circle gives absolute “they don’t fancy it on a wet ,windy Tuesday night in Stoke” vibes. They are the first ever Norwegian club to reach the Champions League knockout phase. The star player if there is such is Jens Petter Hauge. He has scored 6 goals so far and who would bet against him adding more when they face Sporting in the next round. Lets all enjoy the end of this season and hope Bodo/Glimt go further.

I will put a crisp £10 note on Hauge and the manager Kjetil Knutsen being in pastures new by this time next year.


2. Tottenham are bang in trouble

Spurs, Spurs, Spurs how have we got here? They are dangerous of joining the “too good to go down” list. The issue with this statement is frankly they are simply not very good and the squad is soooo disjointed and doesn’t look like it has had any joined up thinking when being built.

They have lost 34 goals and 23 assists with Maddison, Son, Johnson and Kulusevski all missing or buying sold this year. Richarlson, Tel, Solanke, Simons, Muani have a combined total of less than 20 goals and 10 assists. Whereas the defence and midfield were bang average last season the forwards were able to pull them out of the mire, this season that simply isnt the case. This Spurs team is massively in decline as serious world class players over the past few years have not been replaced with anywhere near the same quality- Kane left and Solanke replaced him (Solanke is a solid Premier League player but is injury prone) and Son left and Simons or Tel replaced him (neither of which are straight replacements). I actually believe Simons could be a world class team if played in the right position (number 10 not a winger, I repeat not a winger). I get Spurs have an horrendous injury problem – Porro, Udogie, Bentacour, Maddison, Kudos, Kulusevski, etc etc hasn’t helped the midfield and back up replacements in defence are simply not good enough or are being played out of position. Lets list who are Top 10 Premier League quality in this team – Van de Ven, Romero (at a push), Gallagher (at a push), Simons (but not quite yet) and potentially Porro. The rest are definitely not. All fit and firing  Kulusevski and Maddison would be able to get this team over the line easily but they are not going to be at that stage this season at all. Davies, Dragusin, Dawson in my opiniom are mid table championship quality and are such poor replacements. Bergvall, Sarr, Paulinho, Gray, Gallagher all solid midfields but no creativity and are not ball carriers  leaving tons of pressure on the attacking players who are not of the required standard. The remaining 11 games are going to be a hard watch and if I was Igor Tudor I believe the only option is to hold a low block pack out the centre midfield, make Spurs a hard team to break down and try and nick a goal.

Spurs need 3 wins max, 3 poxy wins to survive and there is plenty of opportunities to get these, I believe the games were they could get these are Palace and Forest at home and Wolves away and failing these Leeds & Brighton at home and Sunderland away. None of these games are a gimme which is ridiculous when we think where Spurs were 2 seasons ago.

Looking at their remaining fixture I believe they will actually be fine HOWEVER, this squad needs a massive overhaul and I believe they survive as Forest and West Ham aren’t going to be able to quite manage as many points to overcome the gap between them and Spurs.

3. Hunt for Champions League Qualification

Tons of mini leagues within leagues this season in the Prem. Title races, Champions League hunt, Europe League mid table push, Relegation battles, yummy yum yum. The Premier League continues to deliver. This week’s focus is on 3rd,4th and 5th place with Aston Villa, Man U, Liverpool, & Chelsea fighting it out for 3 places (Brentford are not in the race & Villa are not title contenders i don’t care what you say). So 3 into 4 simply doesn’t go and I will call it early Chelsea are the team to drop out of this. They have an horrendous run in and face Arsenal, Man City, Villa, Man U, Liverpool, Newcastle amongst other big games and Cup competitions. They need Palmer to regain his world class form from the last couple of seasons to have any chance of getting over the line. It quite simply wont happen. Village I are stuttering and will continue to drop off as they struggle to cope with the loss of their midfield 3 of Kamara, McGinn, & Tielemans. They are struggling to hit early season form and will finish 5th by the end of the season. They will have just enough to finish in Champions League qualification but only just. Liverpool are massively inconsistent and as mentioned in previous posts are in transition and are finding it hard to settle on a style of play and a solid base. They have so much quality going forward and some serious world class players (im looking at you Szoboszlai, Allison & Ekitike!) Alongside some fading forces (van Dijk and Salah) they will grind out results alongide battering a few teams and will finish is 4th. Which leaves Man Utd, mighty Man Utd with Carrick at the wheel. Man Utd unbelievably when we look at early this season have a pretty much consistent first 11, each game I reckon I can name the starting 11 and the 2/3 subs that will be made every single game. Man Utd are benefitting from no Europe or Cup games which is leading to proper preparation for each game. Man Utd have won the last 5 out of 6 games and lead the league in the form guide over the last 10 games. Man Utd will finish 3rd and this weekend im putting it out there – will batter Palace by 3 or more goals. A note of caution Man Utd need serious overhaul to maintain Champions League as they head into Europe next season. Their squad isnt good enough to fight on more than 1 front. Zirkzee, Uguarte, aren’t good enough and Casemiro leaving is going to be a massive loss. Man Utd recruitment more than ever this summer is going to have to be big and more importantly successful.

4. Is the Italian League really that poor?

This week saw Inter and Juventus join Napoli in being knocked out of this seasons Champions League, leaving Atalanta needing a dubious last minute penalty to reach the knock out stages. This is not a vintage year for Italian teams and I would actually say it’s a very average set of teams. Out of the top Italian teams i would struggle to name 10 players who would get into any of the top 6 teams in the Premier League. Martinez, Di Marco, McTominay, Paz, Yildez, Leao Bastoni and Maignan. Arguably, only Martinez and Maignan are World Class. I was struggling to list players – obviously I have left De Bruyne and Modric off the list as they are too injury prone or ready for retirement. The only team I think that would finish in the top 8 in the Premier League is Inter.

How have we got to this stage? The league that brought us Platini, Maradona, Zidane, Weah, Del Piero, Viera, Maldini, Baresi, Zoff, Baggio etc etc is no more and this seasons roster is piss poor in comparison. Italian teams need to invest heavily this summer or run the risk of becoming a tier two league alongside the likes of Portugal and Turkey.

Italian teams have so far suffered a whooping 24 losses in total in Europe. 24 times! At the very least you can add another 4 times, the highest amount of losses was 31 but that did include 8 rather than 7 teams. I believe this year is the worst batch of teams yet. We will lose 2 of the 4 teams left in Europe with Atlanta defo being knocked out by Bayern and Roma or Bologna will go as they are playing each other. Fiorentina should go far in the Conference league but that doesn’t hide how poor this season is. Conference League is very poor this year and with Palace favourites that clearly shows how low the bar is.

Italian teams need to focus on youth development to get themselves out of this mire, they clearly still have the coaching expertise but need to stop buying fading forces like Modric & Vardy in place of giving youth a chance. The quality of imports isnt of the highest standard like in previous years – look at the British imports Loftus Cheek, Vardy, Tomori, Kelly, Rowe and Harrison to name but a few. None of these players get anywhere near the first 11 of any top 10 Premier League team.


5. Who are the Champions League Favourites ?

As we move into the business time of the season, the mouth watering ties that landed yesterday means the Champions League is heating up. And we look to who is going to end the season with the trophy with the big ears. Without a doubt the 2 in form teams  – Bayern and Arsenal have to be the favourites. Then the next two PSG and Real followed by any of Liverpool, Barcelona, Chelsea, Man City. This is super sexy!!!!!!

Bayern’s fire power is unreal they have scored over 110 goals in all competitions so far and it is not even March. Can Arsenal Set Pieces destroy the competition – they have scored from 18 different set pieces so far. Additionally you can’t discount the likes of last seasons winners PSG or serial winners Real.

Lets look closer at the quality of these 4 teams and it purely whets the appetite. Bayern have a world class in form front line of Olise, Kane, Diaz & Musaila. This for me is the best front 4 in Football currently (when all fit). Arsenal are big and powerful with Rice, Salibu, Gabriel, Zubimendi, Gyokeres and if they can get Havertz and Saka fully fit they will be a force to reckon with. The next two are struggling for form and to meet the heights of previous seasons. PSG are missing a fully fit Dembele, and i believe the loss of Donnarumma is huge he is for me a difference maker and has helped his teams ( Man City this season and PSG last) over the line with his assured handling and impressive saves. PSG will be knocked out by Chelsea i believe. Real additionally can’t be discounted with Mbappe, Vini Jnr , Bellingham in their team however with then facing Man City for the 5th time in the last 6 seasons I believe they will be facing an early exit. So for me they winner will come from either Bayern or Arsenal but I believe we will have a Liverpool or Chelsea in the final 4 at least!

Wouldn’t it be great to have Bodo/Glimt go deep and challenge the status quo. At this stage though Arsenal are favourites for me